GDP growth seen at four-year low

06 January, 2018, 01:57 | Author: Valerie Burke
  • Government estimates lower GDP for 2018-18 at 6.5

Financial, real estate & professional services will grow by 7.3% in 2017-18 as against 5.7% previous year.

Central Statistics Office (CSO) has pegged the GDP growth rate during the FY2017-18 at 6.5% in its first advance estimates as compared to GDP growth rate of 7.1% in FY2016-17 at basic constant prices of 2011-12. India's projected economic growth rate for 2017-18 will be lower than the 7.1% achieved in 2016-17.

Growth in gross value added (GVA) - a broad measure of the value of all goods and services produced in the economy that strips out the impact of taxes and subsidies - also slowed to 6.1 per cent, sharply lower than the RBI's estimate of 6.7 per cent. The Gross Value Added (GVA), which includes taxes, at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs 111.85 lakh crore in 2016-17 to Rs 118.71 lakh crore in 2017-18.

He said that 6.5 per cent for the full year meant that Q3 and Q4 numbers will be far better than first half of the year.

GDP growth of two quarters for FY18, has already been released, and the government's projection for entire fiscal will reportedly depend on the indicators' performance during the 1HFY18.

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Mr Sinha said accelerating GDP growth from this level and maintaining it close to 8 per cent will be a tough task even after the economy begins to reap the benefits of GST. The forecast has been released a little over three weeks before finance minister Arun Jaitley presents the last full-fledged Budget of this government before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

He said in view of the lower magnitude of borrowing, the government would have to resort to increasing its revenues or cutting expenditure if they would want to meet fiscal deficit target set in the budget.

Global rating agency Standard and Poor's had kept the growth outlook for India "stable" and rated the world's third-largest economy 'BBB-' in its latest report in November.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects India's GDP to grow at 6.7 per cent in 2017-18. "Therefore, they are not fully factoring in the expected pickup in growth in the later months of FY 2018, related to a favourable base effect and a "catch up" following the subdued growth momentum in H1 FY 2018", said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at credit rating agency ICRA.

Debroy said that several indicators had already shown signs of improvement, "whether it is the PMI (Purchasing Managersa¿ Index), the high growth in eight core-sector industries or data on auto sales". GDP had grown by 6.3 per cent in Q2 (July-September period) of FY18 (the latest quarter for which real data is available), after falling for the straight last five quarters, which had raised hopes in the government that the slowdown in the economy had bottomed out.

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