The art of the nuclear deal

13 October, 2017, 00:46 | Author: Malcolm Fuller
  • The Latest: Trump lays out Iran strategy

Global inspectors say Iran is in technical compliance with the accord, but Trump says Tehran is in violation of the spirit of the agreement and has done nothing to rein in its ballistic missile program or its financial and military support for Hezbollah and other extremist groups. Even Iran hawks who are close to Trump, like Sen.

U.S. President Donald Trump listens to a question from the media as he meets with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about the NAFTA trade agreement in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S. October 11, 2017.

Ahead, we break down the implications of that decision and what could come next. Under the deal, which started being implemented in January 2016, Iran undertakes to limit its nuclear activities and allow transparent worldwide control of its nuclear program.

Even so, some experts told CNBC that decertification will undermine the global deal and encourage hardliners in Tehran to push for nuclear weapons.

However, they do not believe he will go beyond that and call for Congress to reinstate nuclear sanctions that were lifted as a result of the deal.

Daniel Kurtzer, a former USA ambassador to Israel who is now a professor at Princeton University, said the political pressure could be intense.

Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that Iran "is not in material breach of the agreement". European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini believes that this will send a message to the global community that United States is not trustworthy when it comes to deal making.

Mogherini noted that the global community, including the European Union and other USA allies, will continue to abide by the deal even if Trump chooses not to certify Iran's compliance, something which has been confirmed eight times by the worldwide Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

On Thursday, the House Foreign Affairs Committee approved sanctions targeting Iran's ballistic missiles development. Those provisions relate to enriching uranium to levels near those needed to produce the fuel for a nuclear weapon, as well as other activities that limit Iran's atomic capabilities at various sites. "We may have to array our forces to prepare for. calibrated strikes".

Deutch said the danger of walking away from the agreement is that those expiration dates "would have effectively dropped from a decade to a day" because Iran would be freed of its obligations under the deal. Those against it, like the president, argue it should last longer and also ban things like Iranian missile tests and support for militants.

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Federica Mogherini, while talking to PBS TV channel, on Wednesday, highlighted Iran's full compliance with the 2015 deal.

First, Congress could vote to snap sanctions back into place, or Trump could refuse to sign the next round of waivers for sanctions.

Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump greets Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) at a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., July 5, 2016.

Engel said the U.S. would lose any leverage it has with allies in the deal if it abandons the JCPOA.

Second, Trump could call for greater non-nuclear sanctions on Iran as it seeks to punish the regime without violating the deal.

Lawmaker Behrouz Nemati warned in comments to IRNA that any new sanctions Trump imposes on the Revolutionary Guard "would mean sanctions against the entire Iranian nation".

The Europeans seem more inclined to try to "build" on the deal in this way.

The U.S. will need to work with Britain, France and Germany - all parties to the Iran nuclear pact - to fix its flaws and those countries need to know that the U.S.is a reliable partner, according to Engel.

But it could be hard to get both Iran and its ally, Russia, back to the table for a new round of talks.

Every Republican in Congress opposed the global accord reached under Democratic former President Barack Obama two years ago. Many Democrats believe that is more likely to happen if Congress does not act to make changes to the existing agreement.

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